In 2016, I was traveling by road from Uyo to Calabar. "That's a power plant," said my friend. Here, in the middle of nowhere, was a massive complex of a power station, and it stood proud like a Nigerian. And then the gist started, apparently, the Federal Government had built an IPP project in the middle of nowhere and did not think of the gas pipeline that would supply the power station. The irony was that I saw some security lights on, and was told that "NEPA" supplied power to the complex.
The power problem in Nigeria is a wicked problem. A wicked problem is a social or cultural problem that is difficult or impossible to solve for as many as four reasons: incomplete or contradictory knowledge, the number of people and opinions involved, the large economic burden, and the interconnected nature of these problems with other problems.
Rittel and Webber described 10 characteristics of a wicked problem in their paper "Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning" written in 1973.
1. There is no definitive formulation of a wicked problem. This implies that in order to describe a wicked-problem in sufficient detail, one has to develop an exhaustive inventory of all conceivable solutions ahead of time.
2. Wicked problems have no stopping rule: there are no criteria that tell when the solution has been found.
3. Solutions to wicked problems are not true-or-false, but good-or-bad
4. There is no immediate and no ultimate test of a solution to a wicked problem: solutions tend to generate waves of consequences over an extended period of time.
5. Every solution to a wicked problem is a "one-shot operation"; because there is no opportunity to learn by trial-and-error, every attempt counts significantly. Actions are irreversible and every trial counts.
6. Wicked problems do not have an enumerable (or an exhaustively describable) set of potential solutions, nor is there a well-described set of permissible operations that may be incorporated into the plan.
7. Every wicked problem is essentially unique
8. Every wicked problem can be considered to be a symptom of another problem
9. The existence of a discrepancy representing a wicked problem can be explained in numerous ways. The choice of explanation determines the nature of the problem's resolution.
10. The planner has no right to be wrong.
Let's take a look at our power sector. Nigeria's energy needs are estimated at 170,000 MW. Installed capacity is 13,000 MW. Available generation is 7500 MW. The transmission capacity is 5000 MW. Distribution to homes is less than 4000 MW. 47% of Nigerians do not have access to grid electricity, and of these, only 44.6% are metered. Absence of cost-reflective tariffs, inadequate metering, intermittent failure of transmission infrastructure, gas shortages, inability of discos to pay NBET, etc. are valid reasons why power is not solved.
Ghana as of 2016, had power cuts so bad that they called their ex-president, Mr. Mahama, the power-cut president. Between 2015 and 2020, total installed capacity grew from 3,174 MW to 5,171.6 MW, and average available capacity of 2,058.6 MW to 3,363 MW. The problem with wicked problems is that solutions tend to generate waves of consequences over an extended period. By the end of 2019, Ghana had fixed the incessant power cuts. There was a new problem: independent power producers were owing gas suppliers $400 million, and the state-owned distribution company was owing power producers $1.5 billion. By January 2020, net arrears in the power sector totaled $2.5 billion, and excess supplies of power and gas were expected to cost Ghana $1 billion. In 2019, the Nigerian government spent some 540 billion naira subsidizing electricity.
The Obasanjo administration emphasized power generation and built IPP stations everywhere. The focus on generation did not have a commensurate focus on increasing transmission wheeling capacity. $16 billion was spent on the sectors between 1999 and 2007, while power generation fell from 3500 MW in 1999 to 1200 MW in 2007. The Yaradua government initially halted the NIPP projects on suspicion of corruption. By the time funding was released in 2009, completion dates had to be pushed to 2011. The Jonathan administration unbundled the sector and privatized Gencos and Discos. The Buhari administration has a deal with Siemens to expand Distribution to 7,000 MW and 11,000 MW by 2021 and 2023, respectively, and then drive generation and overall grid capacity to 25,000 MW.
A report claims that when Bola Ige handled the Ministry of Power, he promised to solve it in six months. When Rilwan Lanre Babalola entered in 2008, he promised to double power generation by 2009. By September 2010, capacity had dropped by 26.7%. Babatunde Fashola said a serious government would solve the power problem in 6 months. After 4 years in office as Minister of Power, power issues continued. In Nigeria, wicked problems are always reduced to a single cause - CORRUPTION. The fact that they outlive all manner of administrations should teach us that wicked problems always require new ways of thinking - design thinking.